If history tells us anything, it is that regional conflicts spread Those of us who believe we are in the foothills of a Third World War despair at western leaders’ complacency. On 13 Mar. 2023, Britain’s Foreign Secretary announced a derisory £5 billion increase to the UK’s defence budget, apparently ignorant of the fact that…
The best defence against hybrid warfare is methodical skepticism It has finally dawned on the West’s leaders that the impetus behind the Cold War – a deep mistrust between East and West – endures and that, rather than ending, the Cold War has evolved into a struggle between totalitarianism and pluralism, oppression and freedom. The…
Despite its recent minor successes in eastern Ukraine, the war is not going Russia’s way With the Russia-Ukraine War about to enter its second year and President Vladimir Putin increasingly frustrated at the demonstrable ineptitude of his army, navy and air force, the world community, whose members appear to be in denial about the risks…
The world can no longer afford to swim with the green tide In 2008, Britain’s parliamentarians passed the Climate Change Act (CCA), which committed Britain to achieving Net Zero by 2050. As The Economist put it, CCA “would mark the end of Britain’s contribution to global warming, notwithstanding ‘exported’ emissions resulting from products made abroad”.…
And how to make it more resistant to drones and missile strikes As an academic who teaches risk management to an international student audience, I sometimes reflect on whether what I teach is relevant to solving real-world problems such as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, global warming, pandemic risk and regional conflict. Regarding the latter problem, specifically…
History is replete with false flag operations The 2022 Russia-Ukraine war is being waged on the battlefield and in cyberspace. In the propaganda war, false flags abound. The term false flag describes either: An act of self-harm undertaken to cast an enemy in a bad light and garner sympathy and material support from allies, or…
The Russian President likely anticipated his blitz would undermine Ukrainian morale. It didn't
In May 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin drove a truck across the Kerch Strait Bridge, the Russian Federation’s new link with Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. On Oct. 8, 2022, an improvised explosive device, possibly hidden inside a truck, was detonated on the bridge, bringing down a roadway and damaging a freight train.…
The West won’t dig itself out of the crisis unless it decisively responds to Putin’s strategic aim
The cost of living crisis is being misrepresented and mishandled by the political class. Misrepresented because only occasionally do politicians link the crisis to the Russia-Ukraine War and Putin’s use of hybrid warfare to destabilize the West; mishandled because, fundamentally, the solution lies not in economic measures but in ensuring first that Russia is defeated…
The terrorist group isn't a spent force yet
Extremism thrives in chaos. Since the Arab Spring plunged Syria into civil war, the country has been consumed by factionalism. For example, the northwest of the country is controlled by the Syrian National Army (which includes an Al-Qaeda faction), and the northeast is controlled by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Syria’s political landscape is…
Free nations must devote more resources to defence. Denialism and appeasement deliver death and destruction
On Nov. 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall fell. East Germans streamed from communist East Berlin into democratic West Berlin. At the 1991 royal review of the Royal Observer Corps (ROC), Queen Elizabeth II announced “the end of the Cold War.” Amid talk of a peace dividend in 1995, the ROC, vital to Britain’s home defence,…